How many explosive eruptions are missing from the geologic record? Analysis of the quaternary record of large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan

Large magnitude explosive eruptions in Japan were compiled for the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database. Here we use this dataset to investigate the under-recording of Japanese explosive eruptions. We identify under-recording of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4–5 eruptions on two timescales. Model fitting and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC and AICc) model selection suggest that these trends can be represented with the double exponential decay model, reflecting geologic processes. The time series of the recording rate of larger eruptions (VEI 6 and 7) show a slowly decreasing trend in comparison to smaller eruptions. These time series can be represented with the single exponential decay model. The percentages of missing eruptions are estimated from the fitted models. Our results show an inverse correlation between VEI and degree of under-reporting suggesting that even larger VEI eruptions are under-recorded in the Quaternary. For example, 89 % of VEI 4 events, 65–66 % of VEI 5 events, 46–49 % of VEI 6 events and 36–39 % of VEI 7 events are missing from the record at 100 ka, 200 ka, 300 ka, and 500 ka, respectively. Comparison of frequencies of Japanese and global eruptions suggests that under-recording of the global database is 7.9–8.7 times larger than in the Japanese dataset. Therefore, under-recording of events must be taken into account in estimating recurrence rates of explosive eruptions using the geologic record.