The irreversible welfare cost of climate anomalies. Evidence from Japan (1872-1917)

This paper presents evidence of the irreversible consequences of exogenous climatic shocks and economic fluctuations on human welfare. We rely on a unique data set covering the period from 1872 to 1917, corresponding to the early phase of Japanese industrialization. This data includes prefecture level average temperature, precipitation, agricultural prices, and the number of individuals by interval of height recorded in conscription reports, as well as nationwide indices of fluctuation in economic activities. We estimate the impact of yearly and monthly regional climate anomalies and yearly nationwide business cycle reversals on the average height of Japanese conscripts and its dispersion.