Viability limits of the renewable source in an electricity mix: Application to the French mix with anamorphic evolutions

This article is the second part of a work devoted to the study of the physical and economic limits of the addition of renewable power sources to an electricity mix on a territory. In the first part of the work, devoted to methodology, we discuss three criteria of viability of the electricity mix, based on the spectral and statistical analysis of the load fluctuations, taking into account the intermittent nature of the production of the mandatory renewable sources. The present paper is devoted to the application of the MIXOPTIM software, which includes this methodological toolbox, to the metropolitan French mix. Starting from the French mix 2015, we change its composition in controlled and mandatory power sources by anamorphic deformations, and analyze, with the MIXOPTIM toolbox, the viability and performance indicators of the modified mix. The viability criteria determine the maximum amount of mandatory fluctuating sources that can be tolerated in the mix if frequent power cuts are to be avoided. They provide a tool to assess the respective merits of the controllable (e.g., coal, gas, nuclear, ... sources according to their agility and what would be gained if this agility could be improved. The study takes into account the influence of interconnection between the considered territory and its neighbors, and evaluates to what extent an increase of the interconnection capacity increases the physically allowable proportion of renewable power sources in the mix. We also evaluate the beneficial influence of demand smoothing, and of electricity storage facilities, and calculate to what extent the introduction of demand smoothing or storage facilities move the physical limits of the introduction of renewable mandatory fluctuating sources in the metropolitan French mix. In the last part of the article, we investigate the conditions under which a 100% renewable electricity mix might be viable in France.