Marine Meteorological forecasts for Coastal Ocean Users –Perceptions, Usability and Uptake

Abstract. The present study aims to address a proposed disconnect between science and the public. In this case, marine meteorological (metocean) information and the users of these data. Here, the focus is not only on the perceptions, usability and uptake of extreme event forecasts but rather focused on general, everyday situations. The research was conducted by means of a survey, designed around four research questions. Each question was then populated with propositions that were the guideline for the questionnaire. The research questions covered topics ranging from forecasting tool ergonomics, accuracy and consistency, usability, institutional reputation and uncertainties related to Climate Change (to name but a few). The survey was conducted in two southern hemisphere countries, South Africa and New Zealand. The online questionnaire was widely distributed to include both recreational and commercial users. Cultural Consensus Analysis (CCA) was used to investigate knowledge-based agreements within the total group of respondents as well as sectoral and community subgroups. The existence of subgroups within the communities (e.g. recreational and commercial) was also established. The general shared knowledge results are discussed together with user group demographic statistics. A comprehensive summery of all four research questions, with all the resulting propositions are also provide. The percentage of each subgroup’s agreement with the knowledge-based score (CCA model derived) is also provided with the beforementioned. Finally, a conceptual diagram is proposed to highlight the important interplay between forecast product co-development and scientific accuracy/consistency.