Research on an optimization of uncertainty in oilfield development planning

In the development of extra-high water cut in the oil field, uncertainties in key indicators of potential, new technologies, and benefits are increasing in the development planning optimization process of influencing factors, such as the variety of displacement methods, the deterioration of development targets, the increase in the development field, the fluctuation of international oil prices, and so on. In the analysis of many uncertainties in the oilfield development planning, an integrated platform on oilfield data mining and an new analysis method of are established on the based on the optimization idea. Multi-objective uncertainty analysis method for development planning was established on the base of technical optimization, economic optimization and integrated optimization. Using an improved intelligent optimization algorithm, the optimal algorithm of the multi-objective programming optimization model is studied, which can solve the difficult problem of multi-objective, multi-stage, multi-parameter optimization simulation. By applying the uncertainty analysis method, it is possible to predict changes in oilfield production under different probability. These methods can provide scientific decision-making basis for oilfield development and production management, which can formulate oilfield optimization plans for reserves, production, investment, cost, and benefits.