Study on the Temperal-Spatial Structure and Influence Mechanism of Grain Production in Taihu Lake Basin

Taihu Lake Basin is China′s traditional food division with high grain yield.The variation of grain production in Taihu Lake Basin is of great significance to grain security of China.From a macro perspective,the temporal-spatial character and variation mechanism of grain production in Taihu Lake Basin is revealed by applying mathematical statistics and GIS with 27 counties as study units from 1985 to 2010.The results are as follows:Firstly,the grain production showed instability and a tendency to decline,and it can be divided into three stages which were fluctuant development-sharp drop-stead growth.The fluctuations coefficient and the total grain yield variation is above the national average,so there will be a high-risk of food security.Secondly,it also showed significant regional differences.On the whole,it presented a decline in the area with high grain yield and a expansion in the area with low grain yield.The tendency of gravity centers of grain production and population was opposite,so the supply and demand conflict of food is intensifying.Finally,the variation of quantity,quality,structure and pattern of cultivated land use are the mechanism of grain production change and the quality and pattern are the main influence factors.In view of the analysis results,it has important significance to avoid the recessive loss of cultivated land,alter the pattern of land use,and bring forward some research measures for ensuring food security according to the actual situation in different regions.