Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after HCV eradication: Determining the role of portal hypertension by measuring spleen stiffness

Abstract Background & Aims Hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) reduces but does not eliminate the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The development of surveillance strategies for HCC after the sustained virologic response (SVR) is therefore warranted. We aimed to evaluate the role of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in the prediction of HCC risk in a cohort of patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) treated with DAAs. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 140 patients with HCV-related ACLD successfully treated with DAAs in our centre between 2015 and 2017. Patients with available liver stiffness (LSM) and SSM before and at six months (SVR24) after were included. A Cox regression model investigated the association between SSM and HCC. Results During a median follow-up of 41.5 (interquartile range 32-49) months, 20 patients presented HCC. SSM at SVR24 predicted HCC development in univariate and adjusted multivariate analysis (Hazard Ratio: 1.025; 95%-Confidence-Interval: 1.001-1.050); the best cut-off was 42 kPa. Patients with LSM-SVR24 ≤10 kPa were at the lowest risk of HCC. In patients with LSM-SVR24 >10 kPa, HCC incidence was not further influenced by LSM values (10-20 kPa vs >20 kPa), but by SSM-SVR24 values (≤42 vs >42 kPa). Conclusion Portal hypertension, as evaluated by SSM, plays a significant role in liver carcinogenesis after DAA treatment. We proposed a new algorithm based on post-treatment values of LSM and SSM for the stratification of HCC risk after SVR achievement. Lay summary Spleen stiffness predicts the development of hepatocellular carcinoma after viral eradication, especially in patients with post-treatment liver stiffness values >10 kPa. An algorithm based on liver and spleen stiffness can stratify for the risk of liver cancer development and guide the surveillance strategies after treatment with direct-acting antivirals.