The Probability of Non-discrimination or Likelihood of Guilt of an Accused: Criminal Identification

Abstract The relative efficacy of genetic blood group systems is explored in terms of the probability of non-discrimination. This probability is used to assess the value of anti-sera and blood group systems to exclude falsely accused individuals. In criminal identification situations, it is often useful to assess the likelihood that a non-excluded defendant's blood was found at the scene of a crime. The probability that an accused individual who matches a specific set of blood phenotypes was present at a crime scene is derived and discussed. These calculations are illustrated with examples using blood group data from up to 5000 samples from blood donors.