Meta-modelling of the impacts of regional cropping system scenarios for phoma stem canker control

Abstract In agricultural landscapes, pest and disease control mainly rely on cropping system characteristics and location. We have combined a participatory approach and a spatially-explicit model, to design and assess cropping system scenarios for future contextual changes in the small region of Picardie, France. Phoma stem canker of winter oilseed rape (WOSR), a widespread disease responsible for major economic losses, was used as a case study to investigate the effects of modifying cropping systems, at a regional scale, on disease controlling and on the sustainability of a newly introduced specific resistance gene (RlmX). Meta-models were fitted to assess the effects of cropping practices and weather conditions included in scenarios on three complementary model outputs: size of the pathogen population, yield loss, and fraction of the virulent population on RlmX-cultivars. We ran three replicates of each cropping practice scenario, varying the location of WOSR and associated cropping characteristics within the region. Outputs differed slightly between replicates, but there were no significant differences between replicates (alpha = 0.001) for each output. The size of the pathogen population was well explained by winter oilseed rape acreages, cultivar landscape composition and tillage, and the yield loss was explained by weather conditions and cultivars. The fraction of the virulent population on RlmX-cultivars was explained primarily by cultivar landscape composition. These differences in explanatory variables for the different outputs highlighted their complementarity. Cropping practices and weather impacts on the three variables remained consistent among the explored possible future contexts. Highlighting the most efficient cropping practices to be applied in the event of different future changes could help local decision-makers to design cropping practices in the face of contextual change.