Риск развития ишемического инсульта у больных, перенесших обострение ишемической болезни сердца

Aim      To develop a model for evaluating the risk of stroke in patients after exacerbation of ischemic heart disease who were admitted to the hospitals included into a vascular program. Materials and methods This study included 1803 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) from four institutions of Moscow, Kazan, Astrakhan, and Krasnodar where the vascular program was established. Mean age of patients was 64.9±12.78 years, 62,1 % of them were men. The patients were followed up for one year after the discharge from the hospital. External validation of the developed prognostic model was performed on a cohort of patients with ACS included into the RECORD-3 study. Results During the follow-up period, 42 cases of ischemic stroke were observed. The risk of ischemic stroke was associated with the presence of atrial fibrillation (odd ratio (OR) 2.640; р=0.037), diabetes mellitus (OR 2.718; р=0.041), and chronic heart failure (OR 7.049; р=0.011). Protective factors were high-density lipoprotein cholesterol >1 mmol/l (OR 0.629; р=0.041), percutaneous coronary intervention during an index hospitalization (OR 0.412; р=0.042), anticoagulant treatment (OR 0.670; р=0.049), and achieving the blood pressure goal (OR 0.604; р=0.023). The prognostic model developed on the basis of regression analysis showed a good predictive value (area under the ROC curve, 0.780), sensitivity of 80 %, and specificity of 64.6 %. The diagnostic value of other scales for risk assessment was somewhat lower. The area under the ROC curve was 0.692±0.0245 for the GRACE scale and 0.708±0.0334 for CHA 2 DS 2 ‑VASc. In the external validation of the scale based on data of the RECORD-3 study, the diagnostic value was lower although satisfactory as well (area under the ROC curve, 0.651); sensitivity was 78.9 %, and specificity was 52.3 %. Conclusion      The study resulted in development of a simple clinical scale, which will probably allow identifying groups at risk of stroke more precisely than with standard scales.