METHODS FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR ATTACK ON THE ABILITY OF POWER SYSTEMS TO MEET ESTIMATED POSTATTACK DEMANDS.

Abstract : Three analytical methods were developed for assessing the effects of nuclear attack on the availability of electric power at the transmission level of power flow. One is a rapid qualitative technique applicable for comparing effects over large geographic areas and among several postulated attacks. Another makes use of a linear programming model to simultaneously assess the relationship of supply and demand and to provide an optimum solution for delivering power to meet demands in a power deficient system. The third is a noncomputer method for determining the amount of deliverable power and the size and location of the demand that can receive power. Procedures have also been developed for estimating population-related postattack demands for power at various postattack periods in time. The methods are tested and evaluated and results are given for the TVA system as affected by a heavy hypothetical attack on the United States.