The Hourly Surface Temperature Forecasting Techniques Based on Circulation Types

In this paper the Kalman filtering and circulation type classification were introduced,the interpretative forecasting model of hourly temperature in 72 hours was established according to the temperature increase rate due to the different circulation types in terms of T213 prediction products from January to February at 2009,conventional observation data and hourly temperature records at the site area more than 30 years.Testing from March to July in 2009 for the site area was demonstrated.The results show that with Kalman filtering relatively accurate results of the maximum and minimum of temperature can be obtained,while with circulation types classification the accurate rate of hourly temperature forecast can reach 73.2 percent.The method in this paper can play well for hourly temperature forcasting.