Base Cases for Assessing Risk in Transmission System Planning

This paper discusses probabilistic methodology for Transmission System Planning. Recent NESCOE memo suggested that current transmission planning procedure at ISO-NE might create inconsistency within the region and between the development plans of various transmission owners. The proposed methodology establishes base cases and contingency testing as means for consistent probabilistic assessment of reliability for a proposed transmission system plan. The system stress is computed through consistent probabilistic modeling and the base cases established by systematically sampling corresponding probability distributions. The methodology is illustrated for a simplified two-zone model of the power system.