Analysis of carrying capacity of agricultural land in supporting sustainable food self-sufficiency in Tegal Regency

Population growth and industrial development led to the conversion of agricultural land, and then disturb the food self-sufficiency. The objective of this research is to analyze the status of food self-sufficiency in Tegal Regency, estimated from Carrying Capacity (CC), using secondary data from BPS Statistics Indonesia. The formula of CC developed from a combined concept of the theory of Odum, Cristeiler, E Howard and Issard. The results showed that there were three Subdistricts in Tegal Regency, namely Balapulang, Pagerbarang and Warureja Subdistricts that were capable of self-sufficiency in food and were able to provide a decent life for their residents. The agricultural land carrying capacity in Tegal Regency was 1.62, which means that Tegal Regency is capable of self-sufficiency in food but has not been able to provide a decent life for its population. The carrying capacity of agricultural land is projected to decline to 1.34 in 2037. However, in 2037 Tegal Regency will remain self-sufficient in rice with the condition that it can maintain a trend of the population growth rate of 0.33%, rice consumption of 114.6 kg/capita/year, planting index (IP) 168% or 1.68 and rice crop productivity of 5.82 tons/ha per year.