Assessing the Resilience of Coastal Systems: A Probabilistic Approach

ABSTRACT Schultz, M.T. and Smith, E.R., 2016. Assessing the resilience of coastal systems: A probabilistic approach. Resilience is the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from disruptions. Methods and tools to quantify resilience are needed to provide actionable intelligence to plan, design, construct, and manage coastal systems. This paper describes how a probabilistic measure of resilience can be assessed for a coastal community using a Bayesian network. The measure of resilience is the joint probability of meeting two management objectives, one with respect to the level of system performance and the other with respect to the length of time required to restore system performance. This paper describes a pilot study to demonstrate the approach in Jamaica Bay, New York, a dense, urban, residential community located on the southern coast of Long Island. Results of the pilot study illustrate how practical information can be devel...