ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) Model for Prediction of Rainfall in Regency of Semarang - Central Java - Republic of Indonesia

Water is the main factor in determining the success of the activities of food crops, horticulture, and plantation. The main source of the water for agriculture and plantation comes from rainfall. This condition also occurs in regency of Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia. Therefore rainfall prediction will play an important role in the success of the activities. Univariate time series model of ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) can be used to predict it in the future. Data used in the study are taken on a monthly basis during the period from 2001 to 2013. The results showed that the prediction is quite accurate using method of ARMA in the study area.