Methodologies for Analyzing Remotely Piloted Aircraft in Future Roles and Missions

Abstract : The U.S. Air Force s remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs), such as RQ-4 Global Hawk, MQ-1 Predator, and MQ-9 Reaper, have made significant contributions to current operations in Southwest Asia. Although these aircraft primarily provide intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to joint warfighters, armed variants are also able to provide rapid precision strike against time-sensitive targets. The planned increase in RPA inventories over the next several years reflects a growing awareness of the value of these aircraft. In addition, new sensor technologies, such as wide-area airborne surveillance (WAAS), will further augment RPAs potential contribution to future warfighting. Given these developments, the time is ripe for the Air Force to consider additional roles for future RPAs, whether to help address capability gaps that are currently unfulfilled or to replace or complement manned systems in current missions. Thoughtful study is needed to identify promising mission areas, to consider potential platform alternatives, and to analyze how different options could contribute to specific missions and to overall campaigns in costeffective ways. This documented briefing discusses a suite of tools and models developed by RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) researchers to help the Air Force think through these issues. Figure S.1 depicts the overall methodology for evaluating operational effectiveness. When analyzing alternative force structures, the first step is to identify capability gaps. Sources may include the Air Force Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment and the Multi-Service Force Deployment scenarios. The next step is to develop appropriate mission vignettes that represent a range of ways in which platforms could help fill capability gaps. Next, the trade-offs between different candidate RPAs and other systems (such as manned platforms, satellites, or ground-based systems) should be explored within a series of mission vignettes.