Prognostic Factors and Survival Score for Patients With Anaplastic Thyroid Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study from a Regional Registry

BACKGROUND/AIM Anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC) is the least common but most lethal of thyroid cancer, despite various therapeutic options, with limited efficacy. In order to help therapeutic decision-making, the purpose of this study was to develop a new prognostic score providing survival estimates in patients with ATC. PATIENTS AND METHODS Based on a multivariate analysis of 149 retrospectively analyzed patients diagnosed with ATC from 1968 to 2017 at a referral center, a propensity score was developed. A model was generated providing survival probability at 6 months and median overall survival estimates. RESULTS The median survival was 96 days. The overall survival rate was 35% at 6 months, 20% at 1 year and 13% at 2 years. Stepwise Cox regression revealed that the most appropriate death prediction model included metastatic spread, tumor size and age class as explanatory variables. This model made it possible to define three categories of patients with different survival profiles. CONCLUSION Distant metastasis, age and primary tumor size are strong independent factors that affect prognosis in patients with ATC. Using these significant pretreatment factors, we developed a score to predict survival in these patients with poor prognosis.