Comparison of Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System and MYelofibrosis SECondary to PV and ET Prognostic Model for Prediction of Outcome in Polycythemia Vera and Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis after Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation

Abstract We aimed to validate the MYelofibrosis SECondary to PV and ET prognostic model (MYSEC- PM) in 159 patients with myelofibrosis secondary to polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET) from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation registry undergoing transplantation from matched siblings or unrelated donors. Furthermore, we aimed to test its prognostic performance in comparison with the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System (DIPSS). Score performance was analyzed using the concordance index (C): the probability that a patient who experienced an event had a higher risk score than a patient who did not (C >0.5 suggesting predictive ability). Median follow-up of the total cohort was 41 months (34-54 months) being different in post-PV (45 months) and post-ET myelofibrosis (38 months). Survival at one, two, and four years was 70% (63-77%), 61% (53- 69%) and 52% (43-61%) for the total cohort, 70% (59-80%), 61% (49-73%) and 51% (38-64%) for post-PV, and 71% (61-81%), 61% (50-72%) and 54% (42-66%) for post-ET myelofibrosis (p=0.78). Overall, the DIPSS was not significantly predictive of outcome (p=0.28). With respect to the MYSEC-PM, overall survival at four years was 69% for the low-risk, 55% for the intermediate-1-risk, 47% for the intermediate-2-risk, and 22% (0-45%) for the high-risk group. The prognostic model was predictive of survival overall (p=0.05) while groups with intermediate-2 and high risk showed no significant difference (p=0.44). Assessment of prognostic utility yielded C-index of 0.575 (0.502-0.648) for the DIPSS while assessment of the MYSEC-PM resulted in C-statistics of 0.636 (0.563-0.708) indicating improvement in prediction of posttransplant survival using the new MYSEC-PM. In addition, transplantations from an unrelated donor in comparison with an HLA-identical sibling showed worse outcome (p=0.04) and transplant recipients seropositive for cytomegalovirus in comparison with seronegative recipients (p=0.01) showed worse survival. In conclusion, incorporating transplant-specific as well as clinical and mutational information together with the MYSEC-PM may enhance risk stratification.