Prediction of local concentration statistics in variably saturated soils: Influence of observation scale and comparison with field data

Abstract The methodology developed in Destouni and Graham [Destouni, G., Graham, W.D., 1997. The influence of observation method on local concentration statistics in the subsurface. Water Resour. Res. 33 (4) 663–676.] for predicting locally measured concentration statistics for solute transport in heterogeneous porous media under saturated flow conditions is applied to the prediction of conservative nonreactive solute transport in the vadose zone where observations are obtained by soil coring. Exact analytical solutions are developed for both the mean and variance of solute concentrations measured in discrete soil cores using a simplified physical model for vadose-zone flow and solute transport. Theoretical results show that while the ensemble mean concentration is relatively insensitive to the length-scale of the measurement, predictions of the concentration variance are significantly impacted by the sampling interval. Results also show that accounting for vertical heterogeneity in the soil profile results in significantly less spreading in the mean and variance of the measured solute breakthrough curves, indicating that it is important to account for vertical heterogeneity even for relatively small travel distances. Model predictions for both the mean and variance of locally measured solute concentration, based on independently estimated model parameters, agree well with data from a field tracer test conducted in Manatee County, Florida.