The Characteristics of the Change of Hadley Circulation during the Late 20th Century in the Current AOGCMs

The changes in the Hadley circulation during the second half of the 20th century were examined using observations and the 20C3M (Twentieth Century Climate in Coupled Models) simulations by the 21 IPCC AR4 models. Multi-model ensemble (MME) mean shows that the mean features of the Hadley circulation, such as the intensity, magnitude, and the seasonal variations, are very realistically reproduced, compared to the ERA40 reanalysis. But the long-term trends of the Hadley circulation in 20C3M MME are quite different to those of observations. The observed intensity of the Hadley cell is persistently enhanced, particularly during boreal winter. In comparison, the meridional overturning circulations reproduced in the MME mean remains invariant in time, and even weakened in boreal summer. This discrepancy between the ERA40 and 20C3M MME is consistently shown in the overall structure of the Hadley circulations, such as mass streamfunction, the velocity potential, the vertical shear of meridional wind, and the vertical velocity in the tropical region. This results indicate that the current climate models are skill-less to capture the long-term trend of Hadley circulation yet, and should be improved in simulation of the large-scale features to enhance the confidence level of future climate change projection.