Does Truancy Beget Truancy? Evidence from Elementary School

AbstractWithin schooling policy and practice, truancy awareness and prevention programs expend much effort on reducing fall absences under the assumption that stopping this behavior early in the year can reduce negative outcomes later on in the year. Little research has focused on whether early absences in the year correlate with later outcomes. No study had examined how fall absences might spur later absences. To address this gap, this study relied on longitudinal district data for students in kindergarten through fifth grade and examined whether higher levels of fall truancy predict higher levels of spring truancy. The findings suggest that more fall absences predict more spring absences, and more fall tardies predict more spring tardies. However, fall absences do not predict spring tardies, and fall tardies do not predict spring absences. The type of truancy in which a student engaged was domain specific. Findings are differentiated by individual characteristics, thereby indicating which students might...