Analysis of Changes in Extreme Precipitation in Seoul Using Quantile Regression

Extreme climate events can have greater negative impacts on society, economy and natural environments than changes in climate means. The fast growth of population and industrialization in Seoul metropolitan area on recent decades has increased the damage potentials by extreme climate events because of the great potential for the loss of life and property. This study examined the changes in extreme precipitation for the period of 1908~2011 in Seoul using quantile regression, which was applied to analyze trends in all parts of the data distribution. The results showed considerable diversity across quantile level for the time series of annual and seasonal precipitation as well as daily precipitation from June to September. In the time series of annual precipitation, the slopes in the upper quantiles had a more distinct increase trend compared to the lower quantiles. For the time series of daily precipitation from June to September, the slopes of the upper quantiles recently showed a abrupt increase, indicating that the intensity of extreme daily precipitation in Seoul has increased recently.