Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis of the Orbiter's LH2 Feedline Flowliner

Work performed by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) as part of an Independent Technical Assessment (ITA) for the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is summarized. The ITA goal was to establish a flight rationale in light of a history of fatigue cracking due to flow induced vibrations in the feedline flowliners that supply liquid hydrogen to the space shuttle main engines. Prior deterministic analyses using worst-case assumptions predicted failure in a single flight. The current work formulated statistical models for dynamic loading and cryogenic fatigue crack growth properties, instead of using worst-case assumptions. Weight function solutions for bivariant stressing were developed to determine accurate crack "driving-forces". Monte Carlo simulations showed that low flowliner probabilities of failure (POF = 0.001 to 0.0001) are achievable, provided pre-flight inspections for cracks are performed with adequate probability of detection (POD)-specifically, 20/75 mils with 50%/99% POD. Measurements to confirm assumed POD curves are recommended. Since the computed POFs are very sensitive to the cyclic loads/stresses and the analysis of strain gage data revealed inconsistencies with the previous assumption of a single dominant vibrant mode, further work to reconcile this difference is recommended. It is possible that the unaccounted vibrational modes in the flight spectra could increase the computed POFs.