Quantitative Evaluation of Risks from Crude-by-Rail Spills: A Case Study using the Proposed Shell Puget Sound Refinery Anacortes Rail Unloading Facility

ABSTRACT Abstract ID: 2017-143 – Industry considerations, regulatory recommendations, and public concerns have necessitated a quantitative approach to addressing the risks associated with crude-by-rail shipments. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of an event occurring and the potential consequences that may result. To adequately address both the probability and consequence sides of risk, a three-phased approach was developed for use. First, a probability assessment used historical freight rail accident data to calculate the probability of an accident occurring with adjustments specific to crude-by-rail transport, the likelihood that an accident involving a crude-by-rail unit train would result in the release of oil, and the potential size of that release. These results were then used as inputs to a consequence assessment. This necessitated an assumption that a spill had taken place and there either was or was not an ignition source nearby. In the second phase, two computational oil spill m...