Sensitivity analysis of geomechanical parameters affecting a wellbore stability

Wellbore stability analysis is a growing concern in oil industries. There are many parameters affecting the stability of a wellbore including geomechanical properties (e.g., elastic modulus, uni-axial compressive strength (UCS) and cohesion) and acting forces (e.g., field stresses and mud pressure). Accurate determination of these parameters is time-consuming, expensive and sometimes even impossible. This work offers a systematic sensitivity analysis to quantify the amount of each parameter’s effect on the stability of a wellbore. Maximum wellbore wall displacement is used as a stability factor to study the stability of a wellbore. A 3D finite difference method with Mohr model is used for the numerical modeling. The numerical model is verified against an analytical solution. A dimensionless sensitivity factor is developed in order to compare the results of various parameters in the sensitivity analysis. The results show a different order of importance of parameters based on rock strength. The most sensitive properties for a weak rock are the maximum horizontal stress, internal friction angle and formation pressure, respectively, while for a strong rock, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum horizontal stress, mud pressure and pore pressure, respectively. The amount of error in wellbore stability analysis inflicted by the error in estimation of each parameter was also derived.