Applying Disruptive Innovation Theory in Emerging Markets for Crew On-Orbit Transportation

This paper applies Dr. Clayton Christensen’s Disruptive Innovation theory to the emerging crew space transportation market as an analytical framework to enable characterization of interaction between firms in the market. The theory analyzes the impact of technology introduction strategies employed by firms in introducing new products and/or services. The theory describes the market accessed by products and services based on the performance characteristics demanded by customers and provided by the suppliers. Innovations (e.g. technologies or products) in the market are identified as ‘sustaining’ or ‘disruptive’ based upon how performance characteristics align with the attributes valued by customers. A disruptive technology can alter the market accessible to an established technology, given that appropriate strategic decisions are made by the firm offering the disruptive technology. This paper analyzes the performance characteristics of crew space transportation systems, both existing and prospective new entrants, in order to identify whether the systems represent disruptive innovations and, if so, what type (low-cost or new market). This performance-based analysis of suppliers in the market is complemented by a qualitative assessment of the basis of demand for crew transportation services. Customer basis of demand analysis identifies the performance attributes (e.g. reliability, costs, etc.) which customers value in making purchasing decisions. Together this analytical framework will allow discussion of the alignment of transportation system to customer type (e.g. government, private-sector researcher, tourism). Strategies for entrant firms and the interactions between the markets they access can then be discussed once the crew transportation system are classified using the concepts of Disruption Innovation Theory.