A user's guide to ICARUS: A model for Investigating Cost and Reliability in Utility Systems

ICARUS is an energy system planning tool for assessing the reliability and economic performance of alternative expansion patterns of electric utility generating systems. Input information includes capacity, forced outage rate, number of weeks of scheduled maintenance, and economic data for individual units, along with expected utility load characteristics. The model calculates (1) a system maintenance schedule, (2) the loss-of-load probability, (3) unserved demand for electrical energy, (4) required capacity reserve to meet a specified reliability criterion, (5) the effects of emergency interties, (6) expected energy generation and cost from each unit and block, (7) total generating system costs, and (8) fuel use. Firm purchases and sales of electricity can be included in the analysis. ICARUS uses a modified probabilistic simulation technique that produces an acceptable level of accuracy while significantly reducing computation requirements. It has been used to determine the replacement energy costs for short-term shutdowns, to calculate time-of-day tariffs that are based on short-run marginal cost of energy, and to show the effects of new technologies on system reliability. This report documents the personal computer version of the ICARUS model and provides guidance in preparing data input. 29 refs., 10 figs., 12 tabs.