A New Method for Short-Term Forecast Evaluation Based on Stability Degree

It is necessary to make short-term load forecast for doing reasonable power dispatch as well as ensuring the safety and economic operation of power systems,and thus the forecast accuracy is taken as an important examination index,and how to evaluate the forecast becomes a critical issue.Analyzing the disadvantages of the conventional forecast evaluation methods and pointing out that those methods are not suitable for the systems of province and region integration,this paper sets up an index of stability degree based on frequency domain analysis.The stability degree can indicate the regularity of load strength,and is taken as a new criterion for the short-term forecast evaluation.The proposed method is valuated in its application to the region system of Guilin and Hechi in Guangxi Power Grid.