EVALUATION OF ARIZONA'S FATALITY RATE. FINAL REPORT

A procedure is presented to estimate the State traffic fatality rate based on an alternative method of estimating statewide vehicle-miles of travel (VMT). The VMT model is based on fuel sales and a weighted miles-per-gallon (mpg) estimate for the state vehicle fleet. The weighted mpg value reflects vehicle mix by roadway functional classification, the driving environment, vehicle type mpg factors by vehicle model year, and a regional adjustment factor. The model considers four vehicle types and two roadway functional classifications each in the urban and rural travel environment. The model produced an estimate of 30,740 million VMT and a statewide fatality rate of 2.91 fatalities per hundred million vehicle miles for Arizona for 1985. The estimated VMT was 5 percent higher than the estimate generated by the existing State method, and significantly higher than the estimate based on the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) data. The Federal Highway Administration has approved publication of this report with reservations. FHWA believes that the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) is capable of providing reliable estimates of VMT and agrees that updating of the HPMS sampling frame is important. However, FHWA will continue to require that VMT and related data submitted to FHWA be developed in harmony with HPMS and the recently distributed Traffic Monitoring Guide.