Scaling down the “Netherlands Fallacy”: a local-level quantitative study of the effect of affluence on the carbon footprint across the United States

Abstract Much quantitative research examining the determinants of the ecological footprint has been conducted cross-nationally, where data on cross-boundary flows have been readily available. While local-level studies of the footprint do exist for specific localities, most quantitative research at this scale has examined direct environmental impacts attributed to the internal activities of the locality, for instance, carbon emissions. Our analysis builds on this previous work by exploiting a local-level carbon footprint dataset with coverage for 28,321 zip codes across the United States. Following prior research, we focus on the effect of local affluence, measured in terms of median household income. In spatial regression models, we regress the per capita carbon footprint on local affluence, controlling for a variety of other factors. Consistent with previous work, we find that affluence is positively correlated the carbon footprint and there is no evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve. In the conclusion, we review the results of the study and discuss their implications for policy, specifically in terms of cross-boundary environmental problems.