Prospectiva de Autogeneración en el Ecuador mediante uso de Modelo LEAP

Economic and population growth forecasts In Ecuador show that the demand of electric energy will keep a rising trend. One of the schemes intended to contribute with the coverage of future energy demand is electric self-generation, where users produce electricity to satisfy their own requirements through generators installed in the consumption point. This work presents a methodology to forecast the potential of self-generation with photovoltaic panels installed in the buildings of the country. The maximum available space for panel installation is estimated by taking sections of the properly build area of the residential, industrial, commercial, mixed and others sectors. Penetration of photovoltaic selfgeneration between 2013 and 2050 is predicted, calculating the evolution of the energy demand in this period with the use of the energy planning software LEAP. The obtained results are compared with those from a no self-generation scenario. According to the obtained results for 2050, around a 17% of the installed capacity would be represented by photovoltaic self-generation systems, producing around 5.7% of the total electric energy.