Analysis of The Influence on The Bullwhip Effect of A Supply Chain and The Expected Inventory Level of The Retailer Caused by The Demand Forecasting Based on Moving Average Method

This paper studies a simple two-stage supply chain formed by a supplier and a retailer,with assuming that the market demand obeys AR( 1) and the retailer forecasts the future demand with Moving Average Method,we prove that if the external importing noise obey Normal distribution,the market demand and orders the retailer sends obey Normal distribution,too,we deduce the expected inventory-level formula of the retailer based on this conclusion,the relation equation between the expected-inventory-level formula of the retailer and the Bullwhip Effect is also established at the same time,which explains the phenomenon that the Bullwhip Effect always leads to a overstocking inventory in the enterprise.