The East China Sea: The Place Where Sino–U.S. Conflict Could Occur

ABSTRACT The East China Sea remains a Sino–U.S. hotspot. The welcome diminishment of the possibility of an East China Sea conflict over Taiwan has been offset by the emergence of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute between Japan and China as the new Sino–U.S. flashpoint. The United States could become militarily involved if China and Japan come to blows over sovereignty. Washington officially takes no position on the disputed sovereignty claim but, because the uninhabited islands are under Japanese administrative control, the Mutual Security Treaty with Japan would apply. There is no obvious road to resolution since Tokyo argues that its claim is “indisputable” and, as a result, does not want to discuss the sovereignty question, while China does everything short of actually seizing the islands to demonstrate that sovereignty is, indeed, in dispute. The possibility of an accident between the two countries’ coast guards or air forces is real.