Computational Estimation of Microsecond to Second Atomistic Folding Times

Despite the development of massively parallel computing hardware including inexpensive graphics processing units (GPUs), it has remained infeasible to simulate the folding of atomistic proteins at room temperature using conventional molecular dynamics (MD) beyond the microsecond scale. Here, we report the folding of atomistic, implicitly solvated protein systems with folding times τ ranging from ∼10 μs to ∼100 ms using the weighted ensemble (WE) strategy in combination with GPU computing. Starting from an initial structure or set of structures, WE organizes an ensemble of GPU-accelerated MD trajectory segments via intermittent pruning and replication events to generate statistically unbiased estimates of rate constants for rare events such as folding; no biasing forces are used. Although the variance among atomistic WE folding runs is significant, multiple independent runs are used to reduce and quantify statistical uncertainty. Folding times are estimated directly from WE probability flux and from histor...