Coronary plaque characteristics in computed tomography and 2-year outcomes: The PREDICT study

Abstract Background Coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) not only provides information regarding luminal stenoses but also allows for visualization of mural atheromatous changes (coronary plaques). Objective We sought to elucidate whether plaques seen on CCTA enable prediction of 2-year outcomes in patients with suspected and known coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods Of 3015 patients who underwent CCTA, the images and 2-year clinical courses of 2802 patients were independently analyzed. The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause death and acute coronary syndrome. Results During the 2-year observation period, 49 (1.7%) patients developed the primary outcome. The 2-year rates of the primary outcome in the normal (n = 515, no mural lesions), calcium (n = 654, calcified lesion alone), and plaque groups (n = 1633, presence of noncalcified or partially calcified plaques) were 0.2%, 2.0%, and 2.1%, respectively ( P  = 0.0028). Adverse plaque features such as low attenuation, positive remodeling, spotty calcification, and the napkin-ring sign (low-attenuation core with a higher-attenuation rim) were assessed by an independent core laboratory. Stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that a plaque with two or more characteristics (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.09–3.60; P  = 0.0254), age of ≥67 years (mean), statin treatment after CCTA, and obstructive stenosis remained independent predictors of the primary outcome. Conclusions Plaque imaging in CCTA has predictive value for the 2-year outcome and is a useful identifier for high-risk patients among those with known and suspected CAD.