A model for prediction of desert dust cycle in the atmosphere

An integrated modeling system has been developed to accurately describe the dust cycle in the atmosphere. It is based on the SKIRON/Eta modeling system and the Eta/NCEP regional atmospheric model. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterizations of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particle size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The dust production mechanism is based on the viscous/turbulent mixing, shear-free convection diffusion, and soil moisture. In addition to these sophisticated mechanisms, very high resolution databases, including elevation, soil properties, and vegetation cover are utilized. The entire system is easily configurable and transferable to any place on the Earth, it can cover domains on almost any size, and its horizontal resolution can vary from about 100 km up to approximately 4 km. It can run on one-way-nested form if necessary. The performance of the system has been tested for various dust storm episodes, in various places and resolution using gridded analysis or forecasting fields from various sources (ECMWF and NCEP) for initial and boundary conditions. The system is in operational use during the last two years, providing 72 hour forecasts for the Mediterranean region. The results are available on the internet (http://www.icod.org.mt and http://forecast.uoa.gr).