Calibration of self-evaluations of mathematical ability for students in England aged 13 and 15, and their intentions to study non-compulsory mathematics after age 16.

Mathematics self-evaluation (the calibration of mathematics task confidence against ability) was longitudinally explored through 2490 students from England. Students with accurate task calibration at Year 10 (age 15) reported the highest intentions to study mathematics in Years 12 and 13 (when mathematics is not compulsory), and also generally gave the highest self-reports for further mathematics self-beliefs and attitudes including task-level enjoyment, ease, and interest, and subject-level self-concept. Earlier at Year 8, no differences in intentions were found; over-confident students generally gave the highest self-reports at Year 8, while under-confident students generally gave the lowest self-reports. Gender differences also emerged: girls showed no differences in self-beliefs of ability across calibration groups at Year 10, while accurate boys reported the highest self-beliefs.