Time series analysis of vegetation-cover response to environmental factors and residential development in a dryland region

Land-use changes as a result of residential development often lead to degradation and alter vegetation cover (VC). Although these are worldwide phenomena, sufficient knowledge about anthropogenic effects caused by various populated areas in dryland ecosystems is lacking. This study explored anthropogenic development in rural areas and its effects on the conservation of protected areas in drylands, focusing on the change in VC, the reasons, extent, and the drivers of change. We propose a novel framework for exploring VC change (VCC) as a function of environmental and human-driven factors including different types of populated areas in drylands. As a case study, we used a 30-year time series of Landsat satellite images over the arid region of Israel to analyze spatiotemporal VCC. The temporal analysis involved the Contextual Mann-Kendall significance test and spatial analysis to model clustering of VCC. A Gradient Boosted Regression machine learning algorithm was applied to study the relative influence of e...