A Decision-Making and Search Model For Intraurban Migration

Most of the research on the intraurban migration attempting to develop models of the mobility process has presented intuitively appealing statements about the residential decision process, but stopped short of a formal development of these concepts. If it is to be possible to predict the mobility pattern within the city, both the search and selection process must be more clearly specified. In this paper, a preliminary theoretical model containing decision rules similar to those found in optimal search models is developed. The model explicitly incorporates the spatial and temporal aspects of residential choice and has the potential to predict the probability that a prospective migrant will search for a new residence in a given area of the city, the time when the search process will come to a conclusion and, by implication, the expected location of the new residence. The preliminary results from the model suggest a major elaboration of the spatial and temporal aspects of residential choice under conditions of uncertainty in terms of a set of empirically measurable determinants, relating to a household's preferences, beliefs, and degree of risk aversion.