Estimating public health and economic benefits along 10 years of Fluzone® High Dose in the United States.

Abstract Objective The objective of this study was to estimate the public health and economic benefits (from a Medicare perspective) of Fluzone High-Dose® in the US elderly population, since its introduction in 2010. Methods A budget impact model was developed using a decision tree framework and applied over 9 influenza seasons (2010/11 to 2018/19). The decision tree model was designed to capture influenza cases, hospitalizations possibly related to influenza or laboratory confirmed influenza, and influenza-related deaths. The analysis included influenza vaccines recommended by ACIP since 2010: SD TIV (trivalent), SD QIV (quadrivalent), HD TIV, aTIV (adjuvanted), ccQIV (cell-cultured). Two strategies were compared to evaluate the impact of HD TIV: a ‘with HD TIV’ strategy representative of the US vaccine landscape, and a ‘without HD TIV’ where the absence of HD TIV was modelled. Clinical and economic inputs were based on public US data from the CDC and national databases, while data on vaccine effectiveness were extracted from published literature and clinical trials. The impact of HD TIV was further explored in five scenario analyses and deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA). Results Over 10 years, it is estimated that HD TIV resulted in an averted 1,333,479 influenza cases, 769,476 medical visits, 40,004 ED presentations, 520,342 cardiorespiratory hospitalizations and 73,689 deaths and generated an absolute $4.6 billion in savings, translating into a return on investment of 214.4%. Hospitalizations costs represented 98.4% and 98.3% of the management costs in the ‘with HD TIV’ strategy and ‘without HD TIV’ strategy respectively. Hospitalizations and HD TIV relative vaccine efficacy vs SD TIV as a major cost driver were further confirmed in scenario analysis and DSA. HD TIV remained cost saving under all the scenarios. Conclusion The model showed that HD TIV higher efficacy translated into increased averted health and economic outcomes. HD TIV represented a cost saving intervention from a payer perspective since its introduction.