A hybrid FCM-AHP approach to predict impacts of offshore outsourcing location decisions on supply chain resilience

Abstract The on-going offshore outsourcing processes have resulted in complex, global and more vulnerable supply chain to disruptions. However, a good supplier choice would preserve or even improve supply chain resilience. Despite this critical potential effect, this topic remains relatively underdeveloped in the literature. Accordingly, this study proposes a coupled method based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The final model shows the impact of locational decision in offshore outsourcing process on supply chain resilience. Moreover, it allows simulating locations scenarios over time through an inference process. The simulations foresee the impacts of three alternative locations on capabilities required in a resilient supply chain. The sensitivity analysis of the findings reveals that one location would improve supply chain resilience meanwhile the others would damage it. This FCM-AHP analysis enhances the understanding of academics and practitioners about the importance of locations criteria and their influence in the supply chain resilience capabilities.