Climate Downscaling: Local Mean Sea Level, Surge and Wave Modelling

Coastal areas are at increased risk of flooding and erosion in the future, due to a rise in mean sea level and potential changes in tides, surges and waves. The investigation of future climate impacts at the coast thus requires sufficiently detailed projections for the offshore waves and sea levels in both the present day and under future climate scenarios, to provide boundary conditions for detailed coastal impact models. The process of model downscaling, in a climate modelling sense, is generally taken to refer to the generation of locally relevant data from the output of global circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean. The aim is to connect global-scale projections and regional dynamics to generate regionally specific projections relevant to coastal management decision-making.