Snowmelt Water Alters the Regime of Runoff in the Arid Region of Northwest China

Seasonal snowmelt water from mountainous areas is critical for water supply in arid regions. Snowmelt profoundly affects the parameterization of the Budyko framework, which describes the long-term relationship between precipitation and runoff. This is true in Xinjiang, a representative arid region in Northwest China. However, the effects of snowmelt water on the water balance in this region remain unclear. Based on observed runoff data in 64 catchments of Xinjiang during 2000–2010, we analyzed the effects of meltwater in the local water balance both spatially and temporally through the Budyko curve and redundancy analysis (RDA) methods, and then investigated the influences of changing meltwater on runoff. Inclusion of snowmelt water into the item of the water availability significantly improved the performance of the Budyko equation for predicting runoff. The results of RDA showed that snowmelt water, potential evaporation (PET), and rainfall combined explained 66% of the spatial variations in runoff, while the individual effects of snowmelt water, PET, and rainfall were 19%, 13%, and 1%, respectively, with the interactions among the three variables being 16%. These results suggest that the accelerating changes of meltwater due to climate warming will significantly alter the regimes of runoff in these regions.