The Calculation and Prediction of the Non-equilibrium Degree of the Beijing Commercial Housing Market

The non-equilibrium degree is the ratio of the difference effective supply to effective demand with the actual transaction volume in that condition to the imperfect market, no sensitive price system. It can be more sensitive to reflect the state of the housing market fluctuations between the effective supply and demand. This paper constructed a non-equilibrium model of Beijing city commercial housing market on the basis of Lessoning the theory on non-equilibrium model. Further to combine with the consideration of various Commodities’ supply and demand factors, This paper constructed the system dynamics model of commercial housing market in Beijing city from the theory of comprehensive system view, verified the validity of the model through the simulation empirical study, measured the non-equilibrium degree of Beijing commercial housing market consistenting with the reality of the situation, Meanwhile, predicted the non-equilibrium degree of commercial housing market in Beijing from 2013 to 2018, thus provided a new sensitive index for early warning of the real estate market.