Spatiotemporal decomposition analysis of carbon emissions on Chinese residential central heating

Abstract Residential central heating (RCH) is an important part of residents’ well-being policy. However, it is accompanied by extensive energy consumption and carbon emissions. To identify and design efficient future clean heating strategies, we quantified the carbon emissions from RCH in China from 2000 to 2017. Notably, our study is the first to analyze the driving factors of RCH carbon emissions using decomposition analysis and introduce the climate parameter into the Kaya identity. The following results were obtained. 1) The RCH carbon emissions reached the flection point in 2016 (321.75 MtCO2). 2) Area-related energy intensity is the key driving factor to mitigate carbon emissions of RCH; the area-related carbon intensity in 2017 was one-third less than that in 2000. Conversely, per capita residential heating area and urban population increased carbon emissions from RCH. 3) At the provincial level, the recommended emission mitigation strategies were different. For example, Heilongjiang and Jilin should focus on decreasing the emission factors, whereas Shandong and Xinjiang need to focus on decreasing the area-related energy intensity. The results of this study can help governments to formulate more rational and feasible policies for the emission road map, and the targeted advice also offers a reference for future studies.