Concentration and dispersion modeling of the

The goals of this research are to develop the capability to monitor and predict the dispersion of post-eruptive plumes of volcanic aerosol as they originate from the Pu'u'O'o vent of Kilauea Volcano, and to mitigate the impact of these aerosols on respiratory health and general aviation. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft and ground-based observations were used to validate model concentration and dispersion results. The objective of the modeling component is to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersion of volcanic aerosol. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HY-SPLIT) model was used for this purpose (Draxler and Hess 1998). The wind fields and thermal data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were used as input for the HYSPLIT model (Juang 2000). The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation and concentration gradient as deduced from SeaWiF satellite imagery processed to show aerosol optical depth. Comparison of the model simulations and MICROTOPS II sun photometer data indicate that the model is able to forecast maximum and minimum plume concentrations. These results are promising for future operational applications of the HY-SPLIT model in vog forecasting.