Reanalysis of Historical Mourning Dove Nest Data by Using a Bayesian Approach

Abstract We reconstructed a historical mourning dove Zenaida macroura nesting dataset to estimate nest survival and investigate the effect of covariates by using a Bayesian hierarchical model. During 1979–1980, 106 study areas, across 27 states, were established to conduct weekly nest searches during February–October. We used roughly 11,000 data sheets to reconstruct the dataset containing 7,139 nests compared to 6,950 nests in the original study. Original and reconstructed nest survival estimates showed little difference by using the original analysis methodology, that is, the Mayfield method. Thus, we assumed we closely replicated the original dataset; distributions of nests found, birds hatched, and birds fledged also showed similar trends. After confirming the validity of the reconstructed dataset, we evaluated 10 different models by using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach; the final model contained variables for nest age or stage, nest height, region, but not habitat. The year 1980 had a high...