Fatores determinantes do resultado atuarial dos Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS) municipais cearenses

The social security theme has been enhanced with the perspective of structural reform regarding the methodology of concession of social security benefits, mainly due to the actuarial insolvency of the instituted systems: the general one, encompassing employees governed by labor laws; and the Special Social Security Systems, covering statutory civil servants. Data analysis by means of stochastic instruments has proven to be a catalyst for the identification and correction of variables that determine actuarial result, allowing the study of the sustainability required for social security entities. From some variables of a biometric, economic and financial nature, in the perspective of the analysis of observed data of special systems established in the state of Ceara, the following question was asked: what are the determinants of the financial and actuarial balance of RPPS of Ceara? Based on Linear Regression Analysis and Factor Analysis, the relationship between the actuarial result variable versus one or more explanatory variables was evaluated, concluding that the pensioners variable is a determinant of the dependent variable. The findings showed that the greater the number of pensioners benefiting from a special social security system in the state of Ceara, the lower the actuarial result and the greater the possibility of insolvency, that is, the inability to pay social security benefits in the long run.