Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 1: Projected climate and meteorology
2019
Abstract. The interior of western Canada, up to and including the Arctic,
has experienced rapid change in its climate, hydrology, cryosphere, and
ecosystems, and this is expected to continue. Although there is general
consensus that warming will occur in the future, many critical issues
remain. In this first of two articles, attention is placed on
atmospheric-related issues that range from large scales down to individual
precipitation events. Each of these is considered in terms of expected
change organized by season and utilizing mainly “business-as-usual” climate
scenario information. Large-scale atmospheric circulations affecting this
region are projected to shift differently in each season, with conditions
that are conducive to the development of hydroclimate extremes in the domain
becoming substantially more intense and frequent after the mid-century. When
coupled with warming temperatures, changes in the large-scale atmospheric
drivers lead to enhancements of numerous water-related and
temperature-related extremes. These include winter snowstorms, freezing
rain, drought, forest fires, as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods,
although not necessarily summer convection. Collective insights of these
atmospheric findings are summarized in a consistent, connected physical
framework.
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